Bill Proenza gone; tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 08:35 PM GMT on Srpanj 09, 2007

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With hurricane season fast approaching and internal strife threatening "the effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center", as stated in a letter signed by 23 of NHC's 49 employees, NOAA did the best thing by reassigning director Bill Proenza this afternoon. Conrad Lautenbacher, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced Proenza has been placed on leave "until further notice."

The reassignment puts NHC deputy director Ed Rappaport, 49, into the director's hot seat. I greatly respect Dr. Rappaport, who has done a great job as deputy director and is a highly skilled hurricane forecaster. Dr. Rappaport has a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas Tech. He began work in 1988 at NHC, and served as one NHC's Hurricane Specialists before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch. He is the best choice for director of NHC. He had wide support to become director last year when Max Mayfield retired, but turned down the job due to family reasons.

Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. A cold front is expected to push off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, and we will have to watch the waters off the North Carolina coast then for development when the front stalls out. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 1 typhoon, Man-Yi, is expected to become a major typhoon, and will threaten Japan late this week.

Jeff Masters

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629. ridesthestorms
1:07 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
Yes and the queit last for weeks. not even the sound of insects buzzing
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627. Ivansurvivr
8:51 AM EDT on July 10, 2007
Ivan was at night. that was the worst. At least during the day, you can see what's happening. I can still hear that wind scream. Still gives me the creeps. The storm's not as bad as the aftermath. I can still hear that eerie silence. not a sound anywhere the day after. Although I don't wish that kind of devastation on anyone, I've always liked watching storms. I doubt I'll ever see one that tops Ivan,but if it comes-I'll ride it too. Like Tornado chasers, I guess but I don't care for tornadoes.
626. whirlwind
1:02 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
Hurricane season is kinda like fireworks. Tease the crowd with some minimal action in the beginning, but dont show em what you got right away. Then as time goes on, more and more!!! Then as the finally, BOOM!! Let everything loose!! One after another and another...go go go...!!! ahhh..... need some more coffee
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624. ridesthestorms
12:56 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
I was a stupid one and stayed for Rita. I will never do that again!
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623. MrNiceville
1:02 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
So you rode it out on the bluff (or right behind it) - wow...

At least here in Niceville, we have flat ground...
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622. whirlwind
12:53 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
Yeah shear is high... but look at the forecast... nothing but good ol blues and greens in da future..Link
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621. strangesights
12:53 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
Shear relief continues ... :-)
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620. whirlwind
12:48 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
WOW...lookie here. Them beautiful waves coming off Africa. Tis the season. There coming off more north than before.

Common guys, its July, what do you expect a Dennis?? or Emily.

Relax, August is the firing season. Those waves will be shot off Africa from its 'dimble'. Just wait....Im anxious myself
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619. cajunkid
7:51 AM CDT on July 10, 2007
I was just showing a good picture, you guys argue over what will happen to it.
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618. Tazmanian
5:49 AM PDT on July 10, 2007
dr m they this had there first major typhoon they had 2 of them so far a cat 3 and a cat 4
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617. IKE
7:50 AM CDT on July 10, 2007
It is scary as hell.
Member Since: Lipanj 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
616. Ivansurvivr
8:40 AM EDT on July 10, 2007
I lived right off Scenic hwy. About a 10 minute walk to the DQ that overlooks p'cola bay where I-10 sank. I stayed and rode it out. I will NEVER forget it as long as I live. If it weren't for xanax, I probably would have had a heart attack.
615. MrNiceville
12:45 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
Cajun

Unless the shear drops, it will be another shredded system in a few days...
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614. MisterPerfect
12:44 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
I can watch the action from my dugout place in the forest in Dallas...

Ok, I'll be sure to get some popcorn and champagne the next time an F5 twister takes a stroll through big D...
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613. IKE
7:45 AM CDT on July 10, 2007
Posted By: Altestic87 at 7:43 AM CDT on July 10, 2007.
No, but I love to watch a big mass of turning clouds with a hole in the middle in the ocean...


Then there's Man-yi.
Member Since: Lipanj 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
612. MrNiceville
12:43 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
Ike;

I figure there's no reasoning with someone like Altestic. Until she experiences the likes of Opal or Ivan (I sat through both), she'll always be a carnage-lover...
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611. cajunkid
7:44 AM CDT on July 10, 2007
Oh well go here Link

type in X=617 Y=362

click tha animate tab and extract sub-image
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610. weathermanwannabe
8:29 AM EDT on July 10, 2007
Good Morning all.........Looks like all is pretty quiet in the tropics and nothing in sight for the next several days...
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609. Altestic87
8:42 AM EDT on July 10, 2007
No, but I love to watch a big mass of turning clouds with a hole in the middle in the ocean...
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608. IKE
7:41 AM CDT on July 10, 2007
Posted By: Altestic87 at 7:40 AM CDT on July 10, 2007.
No. Boring = BAD. Busy = GOOD, so I can watch the action from my dugout place in the forest in Dallas...


Easier to take when you're not affected. You wish harm on others?
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607. IKE
7:40 AM CDT on July 10, 2007
It didn't work...cajunkid.
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606. Altestic87
8:40 AM EDT on July 10, 2007
No. Boring = BAD. Busy = GOOD, so I can watch the action from my dugout place in the forest in Dallas...
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605. cajunkid
7:24 AM CDT on July 10, 2007
Morning guys and gals

cut-n-past this

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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604. Stormsabrewin
12:32 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
I wouldn't wish Ivan on anyone.

StormW, Ivan wouldn't wish Ivan on anyone. That one was a flat-out wrecking machine.
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603. MrNiceville
12:36 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
Not you again...

Boring = GOOD...

I don't have to put up my shutters. I don't have to worry about power. My internet connection works without fail.

Busy = BAD...

My house is dark when I don't run the generator. I ration my water to last until the pump stations come back on-line. My beer has to stay cool on ice, rather than in a fridge...
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602. Ivansurvivr
8:33 AM EDT on July 10, 2007
P'cola Doug-were you there for Ivan?
601. Altestic87
8:34 AM EDT on July 10, 2007
Wrong, boring = bad ALWAYS
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600. Gatorxgrrrl
12:35 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
StormW - you really should not encourage me...lol.

I look forward to your update today!

Gotta run for a bit guys-have a great day!
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599. stoormfury
12:20 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
area of disturbed weather about 650 miles east of Trinidad. it has deep convection and appears to have a weak mid level circulation. although the wind shear is near 15-20 knots over the system the chances of devepment is very slim. what is certain it will bring rain and blustery conditions to the southern and central islands tomorrow as it moves the WNW.
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598. nash28
12:31 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
That was certainly clever.

Member Since: Srpanj 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
597. Gatorxgrrrl
12:31 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
Nash - I was feeling clever this morning:)
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595. Ivansurvivr
8:21 AM EDT on July 10, 2007
Trade winds squeezing between Hispaniola and S. America shred anything that isn't well formed entering the eastern carribean. That one is way too far south to do anything too. However,thats what they said about Ivan before it was named. I wouldn't wish Ivan on anyone.
594. MrNiceville
12:23 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
Morning all...

So in order for the low off Costa Rica to drift our way, it has to cut through 20-30 kt shear? Don't look for it to do anything but die...
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593. PensacolaDoug
12:28 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
I'll embrace "Boredom" as you call it rather than 100 mile per hour destruction and weeks without power....


I'll second the motion!
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592. nash28
12:30 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
HAHAHAHA!!!!

LOL Gator!

Thanks sweetie:-)
Member Since: Srpanj 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
591. Gatorxgrrrl
12:28 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
Hello StormW, Nash and MP!

Yes MP I totally agree.

Nash - I left a challenge to your trough comment in your blog.
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590. nash28
12:27 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
Morning Gator.
Member Since: Srpanj 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
589. MisterPerfect
12:25 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
in the next few weeks and the "Boredom" days will come to an end.

I'll embrace "Boredom" as you call it rather than 100 mile per hour destruction and weeks without power....

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587. Gatorxgrrrl
12:25 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
Morning everyone!
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586. kmanislander
12:24 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
yeah Caymanite, boring = good
Member Since: Kolovoz 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15846
585. Caymanite
12:21 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
Hi Kman, just checking in myself. Got a feeling that things are about to get interesting in the next few weeks and the "Boredom" days will come to an end.
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584. kmanislander
12:23 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
well gotta run for now but will bbl
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583. kmanislander
12:20 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
0900 shear map
Link
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582. kmanislander
12:16 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
Hey Caymanite
How goes it ?. I am on for a few minutes to see whats worth watching ( if anything ).
There is a 1010 mb low just off the coast of Costa Rica that could be a problem if it drifts in our direction as shear is low in the NW Car now ( 5 to 10 knots ).

The area SE of the islands looks impressive but the E Car as you know is the graveyard for anything that does not develop before entering the basin. Plus, shear is still very high in the E Car at this time
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581. Ivansurvivr
8:10 AM EDT on July 10, 2007
Very typical July. August/Sept will be rough, I'm afraid. Like 04. The western Atlantic/Gulf/Carribean have had no upwelling from from a big one since 05. I don't have proof,but I'll bet the deep waters are very warm. The ones that form will be nasty.
580. Nona
12:17 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
I think the weather community just got used. This individual has a pretty good description of the actual politics and the hidden agenda to privatize the NWS and NHC and how the director of NHC was getting in the way:

1) The whole problem is about money and power, like most political battles.
2) It never was about a disagreement or accusations of Global Warming.
That was never part of the conversation, it was just stupid conjecture
spouted by a couple of idiots looking to get a rise.
3) The first part of the problem is that NOAA wants to "Brand" or I
suppose "ReBrand" the (NWS) National Weather Service which includes
(NHC) National Hurricane Center. They want to spend 10's of Millions
to change to publics trust and reliance on the NWS/NHC names and use
the NOAA name instead. Even though they spent the same 10's of
millions to "Brand" NWS/NHC in the first place.
3) Then they decided to fund a 200 yr anniversary of NOAA for several
Million more dollars.
4) Both of the above at the same time NOAA is making major funding
cuts to the National Hurricane Centers budget. So clearly NOAA thinks
it's a way better idea to celebrate their anniversary and make their
name more popular/familiar by spending millions and millions at the
same time it cuts millions in Hurricane research and tracking funds.
5) The reason for this becomes important when you know that the
current administration has expressed interest in "privatizing" or
basically selling a Government agency to a private corporation. This
is not rumor or conjecture...Google it!!
6) The second part is that the QuickSat satellite has a 5 yr. life
span. It's almost 8 yrs. old now. It has both a primary and secondary
transponder for relaying information back to Earth. The primary no
longer works...just the secondary functions.
7) It takes years to plan and arrange for the replacement of a weather
satellite. There are zero current plans to replace QuickSat.
8) Proenza relied on independent scientific studies that indicated a
marked drop in the reliability of Hurricane forcasting without
QuickSat. This was not his study and was the best info available and
probably still is regarding the effects of a QuickSat loss.
9) I was told the difference in accuracy 3 days out in forcasting the
"cone of probability" for a Hurricane warning went from 200 miles to
600 miles without QuickSat.
10) 3 days out is the point of no return for starting evacuations and
Emergency Preparations.
11) Mandatory Evacuations and Emergency Preparations cost 1 Million
dollars per mile of coastline. This makes a 400 million difference in
tax payer money forcasting without QuickSat. That's a big freakin'
Deal.
12) This also doesn't take into consideration the cost to individuals,
businesses and tourists that evacuate because the "cone of
probability" was unneccesarily wide because of a QuicSat loss.
13) The Feds...reached out to the senior forcasters, looking for
people to make it look like they were invited...compelled even to
investigate mismanagement by Proenza. It's total BS...he turned the
heat up on them, he showed THEY were mismanaging and he slowed down
the privatization plans. They want him GONE! Do you really think a
couple of dozen geeky, middle management weathermen would have the
ability...nevermind the stones to standup, create/sign a petition for
their bosses ouster...in the middle of a Federal investigation. If you
beleve that...YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT FEDERAL EMPLOYEES. Thay won't say
p**p if they had a mouthful of it! This basically boils down to
retribution and punishment by this Federal Administration against the
Director of the National Hurricane Center.
http://www.topix.com/forum/source/south-florida-sun-sentinel/TUG7O07BOUFAH9D1G/p3
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579. stoormfury
12:11 PM GMT on July 10, 2007
i just seem not to get the latest shear map of the atlantic. the 0900utc was not posted, and the 1200utc is now due.
Member Since: Kolovoz 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2720

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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