Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

stoormfury, can you send me a link?

Rapid intensification usually happens with smaller storms. Seeing one that big looking like it could do that is interesting. I wonder if it will be able to sustain its growth. Reminds me of that big one (ioke?) that traversed half the pacific as a cat 5 last year. When hurricanes get that big they can shift weather patterns hundreds of miles away.

it would be neat if they all formed, but i bet one ought to be worth watching. my sa blob looks impressive. why isnt anyone else commenting on it?

8 a.m. Discussion:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF
10N. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
Link

was ioke bigger than man yi is now? what was the biggest one?

tropicnerd13

this is an update of the loop i posted earlier

i think that is my blob, chicklit. i thought it was at 52 w, though. well, at least SOMETHING in the atlantic that has convection is worth watching. if it is too hard to discuss earth weather, how about mars? did you know that they found water on mars?

sorry thie is the loopLink

the 49 w storm doesnt seem to be circulating the right way...

It has moved west Tropicnerd...and is between 55 & 60 now. (That discussion was from eight o'clock this morning.) It has an active system ahead of it with lots of moisture which looks like it's moving more westerly. It will be interesting to see what they say in the update although it's probably too early to say anything much.

both storms seem to have little to no circulation at the current time.

yeah, i agree. now back to mars. did you hear about their water discovery?

Are we talking about the blob in of the coast of south america or the blobs getting ready to come off of africa. Being a newbie at this type of stuff, just wondering if the blobs getting ready to come off of Africa, are in right location and if they look look good. Most of the time these blob just dissipate before reaching the ocean, I think. Can someone clue me in. thanx

i think tht wave approching the islands had an ok chance, some higher wind shear around it, up to 30 kts, but its under 15 kts right now and since yesterday it has beeen growing in covection and keeeps getting bigger, the blob of Nc, i do not think it will deveolpe into anything at this moment

TSR Revises July Hurricane Forecast Downward


07.10.2007
Copyright 2007 (c) A.M. Best Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

LONDON (BestWire) - Tropical Storm Risk has updated its July prediction for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, declaring it sees reduced hurricane risk for the near future.

According to TSR's July prediction, the hurricane forecast for the month is 40% above the norm, compared with a 55% above-norm forecast in June.

In spite of the immediate downward trend, the London-based consortium predicts a 72% above-normal hurricane season. In addition, TSR predicts a 73% above-normal chance that the United States will be subject to hurricane activity, including four tropical storm strikes on the U.S., two of which are expected to be hurricanes.

TSR lead scientist Mark Saunders said, contrary to what some had feared, he does not believe the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will approach the devastation seen in the hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. "With this forecast reduction, it is now most unlikely," Saunders said in a statement.

TSR said the driver behind the recent forecast reduction is La Nina, which is expected to increase trade wind speed over the tropical North Atlantic in August and September. This will help to suppress hurricane activity by reducing the occurrence of the natural mechanisms that are needed to fuel the storms.

Specializing in risk management and seasonal climate forecasting, TSR is led by Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College, London. Benfield UCL is sponsored by London-based reinsurance broker Benfield Group.

(By Eleanor Barrett, senior associate editor, BestWeek: eleanor.barrett@ambest.com)

see for your self.

No complaints here. My personal rule for evac is RUN from water(SURGE)
DUCK from wind. I ride 'em unless I'm in a surge zone. I don't wish for them. I also over prepare. People wishing for a storm often find that it's more than they bargained for. Hurricanes might look like fun on tv but wait till you've had no hot water or elecric for a month. Wait till no traffic lights work. Wait till every tree or powerole is laid across the road. You got a 4 wheeler? They come in handy when tou can't get your car out of the driveway! Wait till there's no radio or tv station on air to tell you where to get a bag of ice. Meanwhile every route in or out of town is under water. THEN WISH FOR ONE WHEN YOU'VE BEEN THERE! Be glad you've never seen a big one. Pray you never do. you'llfind out what the 19th century was like.

oh, great. so they think it will be above normal and others dont.

Um, they do know La Nina REDUCES trade winds in the Atlantic, right?? El Nino increases the trade winds.

Posted By: Delsol at 10:41 AM CDT on July 10, 2007.
TSR Revises July Hurricane Forecast Downward

Sure to draw responses on this blog!~

Well, that oughta tell you TSR is completely full of it.

yeah, i know. when rita came we were overpreparing and it didnt even hit us. ioke looks puny in that picture.

Posted By: MichaelSTL at 10:44 AM CDT on July 10, 2007.
TSR said the driver behind the recent forecast reduction is La Nina, which is expected to increase trade wind speed over the tropical North Atlantic in August and September. This will help to suppress hurricane activity by reducing the occurrence of the natural mechanisms that are needed to fuel the storms.

HUH??? Isn't La Nina supposed to INCREASE activity?


I thought that too.

my mars picture was real. the crater one had a frozen lake in it. cool, huh?

The fact that La Nina is occuring, and it reduces trade winds in the ATL makes their entire outlook garbage.

i agree. to me, i say it will be an over active season, just based on the season so far. in 2005 we were on emily right about now, right? for us we are on chatanal. that is still a good start, but hopefully not near as active as 2005. was there ever a season close to as active as 2005?

Okay, I am now officially ocnfused but I know some of you might help me out.

Avid reader of local NWS forecast discussions. On more than one occasion, the forecaster has mentioned that he might have to issue severe warnings for the afternoon due to high CAPE and precipitable water readings, both of which I understand. However, what threw me was his inclusion of high shear readings as reasoning for possible severe warnings.

Yet, tropical shear tends to tear away storm tops thus inhibiting tropical formation which makes perfect sense to me. Why wouldn't this be the case for a land based storm?

tia

p.s. please excuse spelling errors - not much of a typer

Trade winds blow from E to W. El Nino causes shear due to Westerlies, not easterly trades. My understanding of TSR's conclusion is based on strong Easterlies which would do two things. The first would be to have a cooling effect on the Atl. The second is that the easterly trades determine, in part, the speed of Westward moving systems. A wave moving faster than 20 mph has a real hard time closing off a W wind and thus forming a closed low.

Just my interpretation

nash, i agree 100% it seems we can only guess what will happen ourselves, and judging by the atmospheric conditions, it will be an above active season.

Afternoon all.

I have noticed that also laggie, it seems that the shear with pop storms actually enhances them and can add rotation/vorticity to the cells, hence potentially leading to tornados.

When was the last El Nino year, 2004?

kman, that sounds feasable. can anyone answer my question above?

When was the last El Nino year, 2004?

2006

i think 2006.

I read the article over again, trying to see if maybe it is a typo, but they were just plain wrong.

Way to give out assbackwards info guys!

Great job TSR!

Thanks SJ. Are there any upper/lower shear limits that might be a prelude to looking for severe land based weather?

has anyone noticed the odd timing difference between bobw and me?

what season was closest in the ammount of activity to 2005?

has anyone noticed the odd timing difference between bobw and me?

What are you talking about?

TY Bob and all, For your input, I thought that article was opposite of what I have read here.
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I saw the TSR article on a large insurance companie's web site, Maybe some wishcasting on thier part eh?
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I meant to ask when was the last La Nina year.

i gotta go soon. do you guys know what season or seasons were close to as active as 2005?

La-nina typicaly increases trade winds over the Eastern Pacific. Cooler water leads to sinking air,stronger trade winds, hence fewer storms. It seems to have a vacuum effect over the atlantic causing air to rise and seems to enhance the "cape verde" storms. Right now the gulf and carribean are much warmer due to weaker trade winds. The atlantic was cooler than normal but is catching up. Our low in wpb fl this morning was reported to be 86. That means the waters are probably boiling offshore now.

bobw, up above it says i posted something at 356, then you at 350 then me at 358.

1995 was an active year..

Link

Second place was 1933