The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges
The dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice in recent years has created a fundamental new change in the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that has sped up sea ice loss and is affecting fall and winter weather across most of the Northern Hemisphere, according to several recent studies. Arctic sea ice loss peaks in September and October, exposing a large area of open water that heats the air above it. This extra heat has helped drive September - November air temperatures in the Arctic to 1°C (1.8°F) or more above average over about half of the depth of the lower atmosphere (Figure 1). This deep layer of warm air has grown less dense and expanded, pushing the top of the troposphere (the lower atmosphere) higher. The result has been a decrease in the pressure gradient (the difference in pressure) between the North Pole and mid-latitudes. With not as much difference in pressure to try and equalize, the jet stream has slowed down in the Arctic, creating a major change in the atmospheric circulation for the Northern Hemisphere.
Figure 1. Cross section of Arctic temperature anomaly from 1000 mb (the surface) to 300 mb (roughly, the height of the top of the lower atmosphere or troposphere). Cross section is taken along the Date Line (180°W), from 60°N latitude (left side) to the North Pole (right side), for September - November for the 12-year period 1998 - 2009. Three year averages were done to reduce the amount of year-to-year noise associated with natural variation. Other cross sections along different lines of longitude show similar results, though typically with more warming aloft and less warming at the surface. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
A new atmospheric pattern emerges: the Arctic Dipole
In a 2008 article titled, Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system Zhang et al. show that the extreme loss of Arctic sea ice since 2001 has been accompanied by a radical shift of the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns, into a new mode they call the Arctic Rapid change Pattern. The new atmospheric circulation pattern has also been recognized by other researchers, who refer to it as the Arctic Dipole (Richter-Menge et al., 2009). The old atmospheric patterns that controlled Arctic weather--the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), which featured air flow that tended to circle the pole, now alternate with the new Arctic Dipole pattern. The Arctic Dipole pattern features anomalous high pressure on the North American side of the Arctic, and low pressure on the Eurasian side. This results in winds blowing more from south to north, increasing transport of heat into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent (Overland et al., 2008). Overland et al., 2010 also found that the Arctic Dipole pattern tended to create an increase in easterly winds in the lower half of the atmosphere of 40% in fall, between 2002 - 2008. Fall 2008 through spring 2009 featured the old AO pattern. The new Arctic Dipole pattern re-appeared in June - July 2009, but the old AO pattern dominated in August - September, resulting in greater sea ice extent than in 2007 and 2008. The Arctic Dipole pattern was active again in October, inactive in November, and reasserted itself this December. As a result, Arctic sea ice reached a new record minimum for a 10-day period in early November, increased above record lows during late November and early December, and appears poised again to reach a new record minimum later this December (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Sea ice extent in the Arctic for this year (blue line) compared to the record low year of 2007 (green line) and 1979 - 2000 average (gray line). One could make the ice loss looks less significant by using the full satellite data record from 1979 - 2008 for the average. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Arctic Dipole blamed for colder winters in East Asia
It turns out that the new Arctic circulation patterns help to intensify the Siberian High, a large semi-permanent region of surface high pressure prevalent in winter over Siberia. According to Honda et al. (2009), this results in increased flow of cold air out of the Arctic in early winter over eastern Russia, Japan, Korea, and eastern China, causing colder temperatures. By late winter, the pattern shifts, resulting in colder than average temperatures from East Asia to Europe.
Arctic Dipole blamed for drier winters in Northern Europe
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation--a pattern that usually brings reduced winter precipitation over Alaska and Northern Europe and increased precipitation over Southern Europe. A more negative NAO also tends to bring cold winters to eastern North America and Europe. Though it was not mentioned in the article, reduced Arctic sea ice may also cause dry early winter conditions in the U.S. and the Caribbean (Figure 3). The authors noted that strong La Niña or El Niño events can have a much larger influence on the wintertime atmospheric circulation, which will overshadow the changes due to Arctic sea ice loss.
Figure 3. Difference in early winter precipitation (November - January) between five years that had low Arctic sea ice (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009), and five years that had unusually high Arctic sea ice extent (1981, 1984, 1986, 1989, 1993). Note that low sea ice may be responsible for dry conditions in early winter for the Caribbean and most of the U.S.
Commentary
Arctic sea ice loss appears to have created a new atmospheric circulation pattern that brings more warm air in the Arctic, creating a positive feedback loop that causes even more sea ice loss. This feedback loop increases the likelihood that an ice-free Arctic in the summer will indeed come by 2030, as many Arctic experts are predicting. It's worth noting that such an atmospheric circulation shift was not predicted by the climate models. Indeed, the loss of Arctic sea ice over the past three years exceeds what any of our models were predicting (Figure 4). While we can rightly criticize these models for their inaccuracy, we should realize that they are just as capable of making errors not in our favor as they are of making errors in our favor.
Figure 4. Arctic sea ice extent from observations (thick orange line) and 13 model forecasts used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report (light lines). The thick black line is the multi-model ensemble mean, with the standard deviation plotted as a dashed black line. Image has been updated to include the observed 2008 and 2009 measurements. None of the models predicted the record 2007 sea ice loss. Image credit: Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast by Stroeve et al., 2007.
References
Francis, J.A., W. Chan, D.J. Leathers, J.R. Miller, and D.E. Veron, 2009, "Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent", Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.
Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009. Influence of low Arctic sea - ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.
Overland, J. E., M. Wang, and S. Salo, 2008: The recent Arctic warm period, Tellus, 60A, 589.597.
Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1–9.
Richter-Menge, J., and J.E. Overland, Eds., 2009: Arctic Report Card 2009, http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard.
Simmonds, I., and K. Keay (2009), Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19715, doi:10.1029/2009GL039810.
Wu, B., J. Wang, and J. E. Walsh, 2006: Dipole anomaly in the winter Arctic atmosphere and its association with sea ice motion. J. Climate, 19, 210-225.
Zhang, X., A. Sorteberg, J. Zhang, R. Gerdes, and J. C. Comiso (2008), Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22701, doi:10.1029/2008GL035607.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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morning all
Hurricane Rick is out
You're late this morning; classes, work, or sleep in? You missed TampaSpin's Christmas/love songs link, Orca's recipe for "Moosemilk" -- have to save until you're old enough, and Aussie's Iceberg on the previous blog. Also did you ever see my post 321? I did some homework for you and Mikatnight. It's penance for those who are late checking in today!
haha just trying to get some extra sleep :P
I will have to check that post out
LOL that was awesome
Good Morning everyone out on the WU blog!
Okay, someone please get it over with...
TornadoD, where's the Rick A. video...
what's that called, you've been rick-shawed, rick-rod, or something...I'm so out-of-it, ya know!
The usual extremist post. No one said "shame on us" for advancement. The "shame on us" part comes in when we decided to adopt and continue to push the absolute worst polluting, most environmentally harmful methods of producing goods, services and energies. At any point in our "industrial revolution" we could have adopted much cleaner technologies but for some reason the oil and utility companies were allowed to buy these technologies up and tuck them away in a dark closet somewhere never to see the light of day. We've had combustion engines that will run on water, free clean energy (tesla) and numerous other technologies at our disposal that would put us in a much more favorable position from an environmental standpoint (not even including GW in this argument). Yeah, just sitting on our hands is the perfect solution.
A snowy dusting in Victoria's summer
Most people consider summer a time to wear shorts and thongs wherever one pleases, with little thought of ski jackets or snowboards. However Victoria's Mount Baw Baw saw a light dusting of snow, and it's already two weeks into summer.
A cold front crossed the nation's southeast during Thursday, bringing gusty winds and some good falls to southern Victoria.
Mount Baw Baw was one of the many locations to receive these falls, 31 millimetres in fact. Part of this was snow, around five centimetres, not enough to rejuvenate the ski season, but enough to create an excited buzz.
Melbourne itself didn't miss out. The city recorded 10 millimetres, now making a total (so far) of 30 millimetres.
Surrounding suburbs also had quenched rain gauges, with the largest falls over the eastern suburbs, right in the way of the southwesterly winds behind the front.
Saturday will see winds ease and isolated showers abate in southern Victoria. It is also unlikely that there'll be any more summer snow... at least until next Thursday.
- Weatherzone
--------------------------
I posted this on the last blog. It's a little off-topic, but weather, fire, emergency management, response and recovery...it's all interconnected:
This campus is great, and it's FREE training & housing -- if you do the proper paperwork, which isn't that difficult, promise! I went once, and I'm not even a first responder; just a volunteer. I got my county CERT Captain to sign off. I did pay for my own meal ticket since I didn't want to charge it to my county or CERT group.
Fire Academy/EMI training links & forms
Open Slots in USFA training
Since the landmark document America Burning: The Report of the National Commission on Fire Prevention and Control in 1974 the National Fire Academy (NFA) has been committed to meeting the training needs of our nation’s fire service. It is estimated, since 1975, over 1,400,000 students have received training through the variety of course offered at the NFA through numerous delivery educational methods. There can be no doubt, the American public has greatly benefited from the training and education programs provided by USFA and NFA. Countless lives have been saved and property losses prevented as a direct result of this training and education.
Through its many courses and programs, the National Fire Academy (NFA) continue its efforts to enhance the ability of fire and emergency medical services and allied professionals to deal more effectively with fire and related emergencies. Courses are delivered at the residential facility in Emmitsburg, Maryland, and throughout the nation in cooperation with state and local fire training organizations and local colleges and universities.
The application period for the second semester of National Fire Academy resident classes is currently open, and will close December 15. All the necessary information about the 2010 courses, applications and suggestions for successful completion of the application can be found at the following sites:
Course Catalog and schedules:
* www.usfa.dhs.gov/nfa/catalog/index.shtm
To Download Applications
* FEMA Form 75-5 | Form Fillable (PDF, 352 Kb)
* FEMA Form 75-5 | Form Non-Fillable (PDF, 116 Kb)
Tips to completing your application:
* Eight Tips for Completing a Successful NFA Application
More information:
* training.fema.gov/EMICourses/ - EMI Course Page
* www.fema.gov/emergency/index.shtm - Emergency Managers and Personnel page
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Last Modified: Friday, 11-Dec-2009 07:37:43 EST
Here is a Christmas play list of Music i put together to play today or on Christmas Eve for your parties.....it plays for about 3 hours
YOU GOTTA HEAR THE FIRST SONG!! WOW I just added it from a post on here earlier.
It play countinuous for 21 songs then just click the Play Next button to continue to the next 20....There are 48 tunes in all! I put it together last year and have expanded it some this year....its really very good i think.....turn your speakers up.
Hope you all like!
Christmas and Love Mix from Tim
Look, I'm not an extremist, but we need to face facts. With the state of the economy around the world, most folks are now more interested in themselves rather that the future state of the planet. Do you really think the family that has to decide whether to pay the mortgage or feed the kids cares about if there is going to be an ice free Actic in 2030. Nor would I. I am an certified meteorologist and have been on TV for over 15 years. While I don't agree with it, the media is the instigator when it comes to global warming. The same holds true with any "bad" storm that we have. Just like last week for example. Wow, what an intense snowstorm and cold we just experienced across the US, this is unbelievable. People, its almost winter - its cold, it snows - let it go. In 1282 I'm sure we had a blizzard in the US and a hurricane made landfall that summer - same probably happened in 1356, but the media wasn't there to "blow" it up. Sensationalizing the news is getting ridiculous, just the same with climate change.
Whatever the cause, the question comes up: how are we as a species going to adapt? Obviously, our bipolar global economic machine is not very adaptable. Rather than bickering whether or not global warming is real or not, and what causes it, thinking about our collective futures is my concern. It gets me back to basic needs like food, water, shelter, and community.
Thanks, Jeff, for a fabulous and insightful blog. You are the best!
You are correct Chucktown.
It is really all about poor nations extorting
(the BBc called it Financing ) money from the G20. The attached articles spell it out quite
clearly and the ponzi scheme is exposed. Copenhagen summit will fail. Dr Masters will
remain silent.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2009/10/whatever-happened-to-global-wa.shtml?moduserid=movabl etype420_151954&pid=87382416&upm=False&asb=False&pmp=False#dnaacs
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2009/11/climategate-what-next.shtml
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6763409/Copenhagen-climate-summit-B lindfolds-at-Copenhagen-are-hiding-the-crucial-issues.html
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2009/20090225213407.aspx
www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=5441
President Declares Major Disaster For The State Of Louisiana
Release Date: December 10, 2009
Release Number: HQ-09-151
» More Information on Louisiana Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The head of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) today announced that federal disaster aid has been made available for the State of Louisiana to supplement state and local recovery efforts area struck by severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding during the period of October 29 to November 3, 2009.
Federal funding is available to state and eligible local governments and certain private nonprofit organizations on a cost-sharing basis for emergency work and the repair or replacement of facilities damaged by the severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding in the parishes of Beauregard, Bossier, Caldwell, Claiborne, De Soto, Natchitoches, Ouachita, Union, and Webster.
Federal funding is also available on a cost-sharing basis for hazard mitigation measures for all counties and tribes within the state.
Gerard M. Stolar has been named the federal coordinating officer for federal recovery operations in the affected area. Stolar said additional designations may be made at a later date if requested by the state and warranted by the results of further damage assessments.
FEMA’s mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.
Federal Aid Programs For Louisiana Disaster Recovery
Release Date: December 10, 2009
Release Number: HQ-09-151Factsheet
Following is a summary of key federal disaster aid programs that can be made available as needed and warranted under President Obama’s major disaster declaration issued for Louisiana.
Assistance for the State and Affected Local Governments Can Include as Required:
* Payment of not less than 75 percent of the eligible costs for repairing or replacing damaged public facilities, such as roads, bridges, utilities, buildings, schools, recreational areas and similar publicly owned property, as well as certain private non-profit organizations engaged in community service activities. (Source: FEMA funded, state administered.)
* Payment of not less than 75 percent of the eligible costs for removing debris from public areas and for emergency measures taken to save lives and protect property and public health. (Source: FEMA funded, state administered.)
* Payment of not more than 75 percent of the approved costs for hazard mitigation projects undertaken by state and local governments to prevent or reduce long-term risk to life and property from natural or technological disasters. (Source: FEMA funded, state administered.)
How to Apply for Assistance:
* Application procedures for local governments will be explained at a series of federal/state applicant briefings with locations to be announced in the affected area by recovery officials. Approved public repair projects are paid through the state from funding provided by FEMA and other participating federal agencies.
How is it not extremism to dismiss the argument because you don't like the messenger? I do share your view on the media (the national media anyway), to the point that I believe they now do more harm than good with most topics they report on. But recession or not, people have always been more focused on day to day life and less on the long term because it's human nature. What makes us intelligent as a species is the ability to look forward and make sensible adjustments now for our future benefit. And we can be successful at that. See unleaded gasoline, ozone layer/CFC's, etc.
C'mon, Rita, isn't that "Evacuee" in your handle?
There but for G-d...
I've said it before, I liked your weather posts when there was action last week.
Ice-free area in March. If we had a pic like that taken now, what would people say?
If A Volcano Erupts In The Arctic And Man Is Not There To Cause It, Is It Still Global Warming?
Fire Under Arctic Ice: Volcanoes Have Been Blowing Their Tops In The Deep Ocean
hold on here chuck.....you claim to be a meteoroligist and have been on tv for the past 15 years and then talk about news hyping events...come on...the weather portion of the news has been the most hyped segment for over a quarter of a century....
Danger Presented By Alaska Volcanoes
Alaska’s volcanoes are potentially hazardous to aircraft as jet engines sometimes fail after ingesting volcanic ash. On December 15, 1989, a Boeing 747 flight cruising at an altitude of 28,000 feet and 150 miles northeast of Anchorage, encountered an ash plume billowing from Mount Redoubt Volcano. The aircraft lost power in all four jet engines. The flight, with 231 passengers aboard, fell more than 13,300 feet before the flight crew was able to restart the engines. After landing, it was determined that the airplane had sustained approximately $80 million in damage. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters at the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center monitor the puff predictions utilizing Google Earth and notify air-traffic controllers, who create “no-fly zones” around potentially dangerous plumes.
The Mount Redoubt eruptions of 1989-1990 constituted the second most costly eruptions in the history of the United States. During periods of continuous ash fallout, the eruptions had a significant impact on the aviation and oil industries, and people of the Kenai Peninsula. On the Kenai Peninsula schools were closed and some individuals experienced respiratory problems. At the Drift River oil terminal, lahar out-flows threatened the facility and partially inundated the terminal on January 2, 1990. Also, the eruptions damaged five commercial aircraft, caused several days of airport closures and airline cancellations in Anchorage and on the Kenai Peninsula. Air traffic as far away as Texas was disrupted. Mount Redoubt last erupted in March-July 2009. A resumption of eruptive activity at Mount Redoubt in the near future is possible, but Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) considers this scenario unlikely.
The three eruptions of Mount Spurr Crater Peak in 1992 deposited ash on Anchorage and surrounding communities, made ground transportation difficult, closed airports and disrupted air traffic as far east as Cleveland, Ohio. The 1912 eruption of Novarupta and Katmai, which formed the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes on the Alaska Peninsula, was the largest twentieth century eruption on earth, and the largest historical eruption in Alaska. Ash from Novarupta spread worldwide and was often remobilized by strong winds. Roofs in Kodiak collapsed due to the weight of the ash; six villages close to Katmai and Novarupta were permanently abandoned. (AVO, USGS)
Blog Update
Leaving
No real way to know.
I'll be back in a day or 2...maybe.
Congratulations on the new addition-to-be!
Sounds like you have your priorities straight.
Thank you, and I am sure folks will be looking forward to a joyful spring announcement and to you stopping by from time to time.
See how the ice covers the space between Canada and the North Pole? That ice is missing from 70N latitude over N Europe and N Asia. By the beginning of December each year, the Baltic Sea is normally 2/3 rds frozen. Now it is almost ice free.
It gets hyped by the anchors and off camera producers, NOT by the on camera mets, at least most of them. We forecast the best we can for the viewer. I can't tell you how many times a producer "wants" to type something in the super that is completely opposite of what I have to say just to "keep" the viewer.
Congratulations! You will be missed, have always enjoyed your posts
Take care, and I understand, hope I didn't add to the discomfort too much.
I have to take off soon myself -- need to obtain the first Chrismukkah present -- blended "mixed" modern family here, LOL.
Happy joyful any-and-every holidays, all!
Amid all the GW bickering and he said she said, the climate is changing. Changing at a much quicker pace than once thought. Hopefully the ego's retreat and these "Experts" can work together and figure out where to go from here.
From abc.net.au:
"Aussies' iceberg party plans drift away
A change of weather has melted the hopes of some Australians who were planning to hold a party on an iceberg which was drifting towards New Zealand."
Full story here: Link
I don't know about the ice but I suspect it's a similar measurement to snow, ie even half an inch on the ground is enough to color the map white for that area. Many studies have shown that the arctic ice is thinning rapidly, not only the surface extent is important, but also thickness.
"Topic*: Updated Status of QuikSCAT
*
Date/Time(UTC) Message Issued*: 11 December 2009 1645 UTC
*
Satellite(s) Involved*: QuikSCAT*
Product(s) Involved/Affected*: All QuikSCAT products*
Details:* QuickSCAT products remain out of service. Another attempt to recover will be made sometime at the end of January 2010; with probability being low of operational recovery.*
"
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