The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 03:53 PM GMT on Prosinac 11, 2009

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The dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice in recent years has created a fundamental new change in the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that has sped up sea ice loss and is affecting fall and winter weather across most of the Northern Hemisphere, according to several recent studies. Arctic sea ice loss peaks in September and October, exposing a large area of open water that heats the air above it. This extra heat has helped drive September - November air temperatures in the Arctic to 1°C (1.8°F) or more above average over about half of the depth of the lower atmosphere (Figure 1). This deep layer of warm air has grown less dense and expanded, pushing the top of the troposphere (the lower atmosphere) higher. The result has been a decrease in the pressure gradient (the difference in pressure) between the North Pole and mid-latitudes. With not as much difference in pressure to try and equalize, the jet stream has slowed down in the Arctic, creating a major change in the atmospheric circulation for the Northern Hemisphere.


Figure 1. Cross section of Arctic temperature anomaly from 1000 mb (the surface) to 300 mb (roughly, the height of the top of the lower atmosphere or troposphere). Cross section is taken along the Date Line (180°W), from 60°N latitude (left side) to the North Pole (right side), for September - November for the 12-year period 1998 - 2009. Three year averages were done to reduce the amount of year-to-year noise associated with natural variation. Other cross sections along different lines of longitude show similar results, though typically with more warming aloft and less warming at the surface. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

A new atmospheric pattern emerges: the Arctic Dipole
In a 2008 article titled, Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system Zhang et al. show that the extreme loss of Arctic sea ice since 2001 has been accompanied by a radical shift of the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns, into a new mode they call the Arctic Rapid change Pattern. The new atmospheric circulation pattern has also been recognized by other researchers, who refer to it as the Arctic Dipole (Richter-Menge et al., 2009). The old atmospheric patterns that controlled Arctic weather--the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), which featured air flow that tended to circle the pole, now alternate with the new Arctic Dipole pattern. The Arctic Dipole pattern features anomalous high pressure on the North American side of the Arctic, and low pressure on the Eurasian side. This results in winds blowing more from south to north, increasing transport of heat into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent (Overland et al., 2008). Overland et al., 2010 also found that the Arctic Dipole pattern tended to create an increase in easterly winds in the lower half of the atmosphere of 40% in fall, between 2002 - 2008. Fall 2008 through spring 2009 featured the old AO pattern. The new Arctic Dipole pattern re-appeared in June - July 2009, but the old AO pattern dominated in August - September, resulting in greater sea ice extent than in 2007 and 2008. The Arctic Dipole pattern was active again in October, inactive in November, and reasserted itself this December. As a result, Arctic sea ice reached a new record minimum for a 10-day period in early November, increased above record lows during late November and early December, and appears poised again to reach a new record minimum later this December (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Sea ice extent in the Arctic for this year (blue line) compared to the record low year of 2007 (green line) and 1979 - 2000 average (gray line). One could make the ice loss looks less significant by using the full satellite data record from 1979 - 2008 for the average. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic Dipole blamed for colder winters in East Asia
It turns out that the new Arctic circulation patterns help to intensify the Siberian High, a large semi-permanent region of surface high pressure prevalent in winter over Siberia. According to Honda et al. (2009), this results in increased flow of cold air out of the Arctic in early winter over eastern Russia, Japan, Korea, and eastern China, causing colder temperatures. By late winter, the pattern shifts, resulting in colder than average temperatures from East Asia to Europe.

Arctic Dipole blamed for drier winters in Northern Europe
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation--a pattern that usually brings reduced winter precipitation over Alaska and Northern Europe and increased precipitation over Southern Europe. A more negative NAO also tends to bring cold winters to eastern North America and Europe. Though it was not mentioned in the article, reduced Arctic sea ice may also cause dry early winter conditions in the U.S. and the Caribbean (Figure 3). The authors noted that strong La Niña or El Niño events can have a much larger influence on the wintertime atmospheric circulation, which will overshadow the changes due to Arctic sea ice loss.


Figure 3. Difference in early winter precipitation (November - January) between five years that had low Arctic sea ice (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009), and five years that had unusually high Arctic sea ice extent (1981, 1984, 1986, 1989, 1993). Note that low sea ice may be responsible for dry conditions in early winter for the Caribbean and most of the U.S.

Commentary
Arctic sea ice loss appears to have created a new atmospheric circulation pattern that brings more warm air in the Arctic, creating a positive feedback loop that causes even more sea ice loss. This feedback loop increases the likelihood that an ice-free Arctic in the summer will indeed come by 2030, as many Arctic experts are predicting. It's worth noting that such an atmospheric circulation shift was not predicted by the climate models. Indeed, the loss of Arctic sea ice over the past three years exceeds what any of our models were predicting (Figure 4). While we can rightly criticize these models for their inaccuracy, we should realize that they are just as capable of making errors not in our favor as they are of making errors in our favor.


Figure 4. Arctic sea ice extent from observations (thick orange line) and 13 model forecasts used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report (light lines). The thick black line is the multi-model ensemble mean, with the standard deviation plotted as a dashed black line. Image has been updated to include the observed 2008 and 2009 measurements. None of the models predicted the record 2007 sea ice loss. Image credit: Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast by Stroeve et al., 2007.

References
Francis, J.A., W. Chan, D.J. Leathers, J.R. Miller, and D.E. Veron, 2009, "Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent", Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009. Influence of low Arctic sea - ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Overland, J. E., M. Wang, and S. Salo, 2008: The recent Arctic warm period, Tellus, 60A, 589.597.

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1–9.

Richter-Menge, J., and J.E. Overland, Eds., 2009: Arctic Report Card 2009, http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard.

Simmonds, I., and K. Keay (2009), Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19715, doi:10.1029/2009GL039810.

Wu, B., J. Wang, and J. E. Walsh, 2006: Dipole anomaly in the winter Arctic atmosphere and its association with sea ice motion. J. Climate, 19, 210-225.

Zhang, X., A. Sorteberg, J. Zhang, R. Gerdes, and J. C. Comiso (2008), Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22701, doi:10.1029/2008GL035607.

Jeff Masters

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If there is a L over siberia and an H over Alaska, how does air flow TOWARD a high pressure zone and away from a low pressure zone.
Low pressure sucks air and surrounding air moves toward it to fill the gap, right?
I'm still having trouble with this one.
Does the low aloft suck in air and push it to the ground where conditions are reversed?
Sorry, I'm so slow.
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Carbon based emissions contribute to warming of the atmosphere which is accelerating.
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The Arctic Dipole pattern features anomalous high pressure on the North American side of the Arctic, and low pressure on the Eurasian side. This results in winds blowing more from south to north, increasing transport of heat into the central Arctic Ocean.

This is from Jeff's blog on the Arctic Dipole referenced in today's blog.
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1836. bophame
Interesting, but hmm. Not so long ago, a lack of snow was blamed on global warming. I'm feeling rather whiplashed by the sudden changes of explanation to suit the most recent weather phenomena.

"Breitbart.tv has a collection of clips from the past decade depicting Democratic congressmen blaming global warming for shortfalls of snow."

http://online.wsj.com/article/best_of_the_web_today.html#printMode
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What! A NEW DR. JEFF BLOG an hour ago!!!

Why, was that an obvious hint for me to stay away this morning????

I'm SO hurt...lol, sob...
Member Since: Kolovoz 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Whoops, my bad. 2 different places.

ya i was goin to say 2 different places, but u caught urself.. thats alot of rain in one day and more is coming.. not looking good
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National Situation Update: Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Significant National Weather

Midwest
Frigid air in the northern Plains and upper Midwest will move eastward over the Great Lakes today. Today’s highs will range from 0 to 20 degrees across the Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes to the 20s and 30s over the middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Wind chills may drop to -40 or less in the Dakotas and about 0 around the Chicago area. On Wednesday temperatures will rise over the southern and western Plains, middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley bringing temperatures to highs in the upper 30s to mid-40s. Temperatures will remain cold on Wednesday in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes with highs in the teens and 20s and lake effect snow is possible over the Great Lakes.

Northeast
A weak storm will bring very light rain and snow this morning to parts of upstate New York and northern New England. Portions of central New York, southwest New York, and northwest Pennsylvania may see 6 to 12 inches of snow tonight through early Thursday. Snow showers will be likely later today through Wednesday in the mountains of West Virginia.

South
Most of the South will stay cloudy and foggy, with rain and thunderstorms. The Gulf Coast and southeast coast will see rain, some of it heavy, through tonight. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is forecast from Houston, Texas to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, as well as New Orleans, which has already seen 5 to 8 inches of rain this past weekend. Localized flooding is possible from southeastern Texas to coastal South Carolina. Tonight through Wednesday morning, the rain should start to end but will then move south into Florida and south Texas.

West
A very strong winter storm in the Pacific Northwest will continue through today. Heavy rain is likely across the northwest California coast, possibly bringing up to 1 to 3 inches of rain by tonight. Moderate amounts of rain are forecast along the coast northward through Washington. The mountains of northern California, eastern Oregon, and central Idaho will see heavy snow totaling 10 to 20 inches through today. The mountains of northern Idaho and western Montana will see lighter snow totaling 4 to 8 inches. Portions of the Cascades could see 1 to 2 feet of snow. By Wednesday, the rain and snow should taper off. (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

NASA Launches New Satellite

Yesterday, NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, or WISE, lifted off over the Pacific Ocean on its way to map the entire sky in infrared light. A Delta II rocket carrying the spacecraft launched at 6:09 a.m. PST (9:09 a.m. EST) from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.
WISE, will scan the entire sky in infrared light, picking up the glow of hundreds of millions of objects and producing millions of images. The mission will uncover objects never seen before, including the coolest stars, the universe's most luminous galaxies and some of the darkest near-Earth asteroids and comets. Thanks to next-generation technology, WISE's sensitivity is hundreds of times greater than its predecessor, the Infrared Astronomical Satellite, which operated in 1983.

The closest of WISE's finds will be near-Earth objects, both asteroids and comets, with orbits that come close to crossing Earth's path. The mission is expected to find hundreds of these bodies, and hundreds of thousands of additional asteroids in our solar system's main asteroid belt. By measuring the objects' infrared light, astronomers will get the first good estimate of the size distribution of the asteroid population. This information will tell us approximately how often Earth can expect an encounter with a potentially hazardous asteroid. WISE data will also reveal new information about the composition of near-Earth objects and asteroids -- are they fluffy like snow or hard like rocks, or both?
The next closest targets for WISE are dim stars called brown dwarfs. These Jupiter-like balls of gas form like stars but fail to gather up enough mass to ignite like stars. The objects are cool and faint, and nearly impossible to see in visible light. WISE should uncover about 1,000 in total, and will double or triple the number of star-like objects known within 25 light-years of Earth. (NASA)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Western Pacific
No activity threatening U.S. territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Tuesday, 15-Dec-2009 07:55:02 EST
Member Since: Kolovoz 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918





Radar




Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 36
Issued at 12:05 am WST on Tuesday, 15 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay, including Derby.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent areas to the south.

The Cyclone WARNING between Kalumburu and Mitchell Plateau has been CANCELLED.

At 11:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 4 was estimated to be
80 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay and
185 kilometres northeast of Cockatoo Island and
moving southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but intense tropical cyclone having
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 230 kilometres per hour close to the
cyclone centre.
As Laurence tracks to the southwest near the Kimberley coast
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds may develop at Kuri Bay early Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour should extend further southwest
along the coast, reaching Cockatoo and Koolan Islands during Wednesday and
should the centre pass close by VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible during the
afternoon and evening. GALES may extend to Derby and Beagle Bay overnight
Wednesday night.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north Kimberley region, extending
into the western Kimberley on Wednesday. Daily rainfall totals in excess of
100mm are possible near the coast with totals decreasing further inland.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Kuri Bay need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People at or near Mitchell Plateau should be taking action.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Koolan Island and Cockatoo
Island
should start taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in Kalumburu are advised that wind danger has passed but you
need to take care to avoid any danger caused by the heavy rain.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 124.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 954 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday 16 December.
Member Since: Rujan 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
1829. Oh, sucky. Not fun like a snow day at all.

Wait a minute -- is that 10 PLUS 12? Quick logistics, geography lesson, please, Brewton-Baldwin? TIA.
The National Weather Service said as much as 10 inches of rain fell in northern Baldwin County, and one report in Brewton estimated rainfall there at 12 inches for Monday.


Whoops, my bad. 2 different places.
Member Since: Kolovoz 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
1829. Oh, sucky. Not fun like a snow day at all.

Wait a minute -- is that 10 PLUS 12? Quick logistics, geography lesson, please, Brewton-Baldwin? TIA.
The National Weather Service said as much as 10 inches of rain fell in northern Baldwin County, and one report in Brewton estimated rainfall there at 12 inches for Monday.
Member Since: Kolovoz 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Rain closes schools in southwest Ala.

BAY MINETTE, Ala. (AP) — Heavy rains covered roads with floodwaters and forced educators to close schools Tuesday in parts of southwest Alabama, with as much as 10 inches of rain falling in a few hours.

The weather service said Burnt Corn Creek rose to more than 6 feet above flood level at Brewton in Escambia County, where schools were closed. Parts of downtown flooded, and police had to rescue several stranded motorists in Atmore.

Classes went on as scheduled in Baldwin County, but officials said some bus routes would be limited because water was covering roads. Ramps to Interstate 10 were closed Monday night because of standing water.

The National Weather Service said as much as 10 inches of rain fell in northern Baldwin County, and one report in Brewton estimated rainfall there at 12 inches for Monday.

Link: http://www.pnj.com/article/20091215/NEWS01/91215005/1006/RSS01
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Co-ol. New electric plug-in Toyota Prius hybrid model, available in 2 years.

full charge full tank of gas =
1400 Kilometers = 869.919669 Miles

Reuters
gmy.news.yahoo.com/vid/17138394
Link
Member Since: Kolovoz 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Who pays you for this bs JF?


hahahahahahahahaha, Thats funny get him.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


Thats not how you scientifically evaluate anything.

No, that is how you make wise use of your time.

If you have a perfectly good thermometer outside your door that measures down to the 0.1 degrees with no bias, would you ever look at the one that only tells you temp in 15 degree increments and records temp changes veeeerrrryy sloooowwwwwwly? No.

So why do that here? Same thing.

L8R.
Member Since: Kolovoz 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Why bother with quantifying error. If you know it poorly represents the variable you are looking to quantify and leaden with other factors, you don't waste your time with it anymore.

"shows that elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide during the past 50 years have boosted aspen growth rates by an astonishing 50 percent"
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-12/uow-ggc120109.php

That is all I need to toss out tree-ring-growth-rates-equal-temperature. We knew available water was an issue that made them vary. We knew there would be some that reflected a tall tree nearby that died, thus changing sunlight availability a lot. We knew there was some effect from CO2 changes, but thought it was small. Wrong, again.

Time to move on.
Member Since: Kolovoz 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1822. SQUAWK
I can always tell when a blog is going to hell in a hand basket.
When the fat boy in the blue shirt show up --- game over --- it's gonna be ugly.
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Who pays you for this bs JF?
Member Since: Srpanj 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
Quoting JFLORIDA:


NO you are grasping at tree rings and a huge conspiracy.

Nope, I don't need a conspiracy. (stick to the subject, JF)

I have known bad data at the root of it all.
Member Since: Kolovoz 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Joe Bastardi this morning.

TUESDAY 10 A.M.
BRRRR FROM BANFFFFF AND EDMONTON

Heck of a way to run a global warmup, eh?

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/technology/Edmonton+shatters+cold+record/2336460 /story.html

Now this is NOT A REASON TO BELIEVE AN ICE AGE is coming, but when you start putting some of the outstanding cold events together... (Houston, two of December's earliest snows ever for instance) if you look, you can match warm for cold in the fight.

I notice no one is talking about how the snow in the Alps and western North America has been leading to increase snow packs, but melt a glacier someplace, and look out, it's front page news.

Ciao for now. ***
Member Since: Srpanj 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Just because it uses that data and later studies use it too doesn't mean its wrong.


WHAT!?!?!?!

So if I put data that is clearly wrong into my WRF model run, you would be perfectly confident in the model result?

I don't think so. Wrong data makes wrong conclusions, wrong value-added data (more data built on the previous data), wrong model results, wrong, wrong, wrong.

And, the other proxies capable of determining temps within a reasonable scale and temporal resolution comparable to the tree ring results show it to be a horrible proxy for temperatures. That study I put up here was an analysis of 18 other, independent, peer-reviewed, proxy studies from a dozen researchers from all over the globe using data also from almost every continent. You could say the tree ring data "diverged" from a study of all other available proxy studies...
Member Since: Kolovoz 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Hey Awake! Pensacola paper has that water report on the front page today.

Pensacolanewsjournal.con

Cool! Thanks. Will read now!
Member Since: Kolovoz 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
1813. hcubed
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Tree ring data is useful in showing trends. It is not an accurate gauge of temperature. No one says it is.


And if the tree ring data cannot accurately track the RECORDED temperature trends, what guarantee is there that it's showing any PAST trend accurately?

Scientists have used the tree ring proxy, along with other proxies, to imply that the current temp rise trend is "unprecidented" (the warmest it's ever been in the last billion years, I believe they've said).
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Hey Awake! Pensacola paper has that water report on the front page today.

Pensacolanewsjournal.con
Member Since: Srpanj 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
Quoting JFLORIDA:
No, I did not say that. what if it is actually a "Hockey Stick." The Glacial record certainly indicates it is. So do Ice cores and coral studies. What then. Later Reconstructions from independent locations confirm it.

The Tree ring temp analysis was never said to be "wrong" just there was a possibility that it could be off when it was cross checked with recent growth in a FEW places. I dont think the trends in older studies were ever disputed.

Oh? Is the MWP, and all of the historical things that came with it, a figment of our imaginations? Or did it really happen?

Only 2 possibilities here.
1. It happened, thus the tree data is horrible at historical temps.
2. It did not happen. It is a mass hallucination to think that there was a warmer period in our history along with all of the odd things that happened as a result of the warmer temps.
Member Since: Kolovoz 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting hcubed:


I've found it better if you ignore any stories that have "Gore" and "Global Warming" in them.

BTW, exactly what science background does Gore have?


Okay, I found this an interesting question, although I know many of us here are tired and bored silly by Gore bashers -- this seemed an honest inquiry. I feel like I kind of understand Gore as I majored in an area related to journalism (RTVF). When you're interested in everything, you MIGHT spread yourself too thin and have an uneven track record. However as a journalist you also have to absorb a lot of information FAST plus put it out there in an interesting, absorbing, and hopefully, attention-grabbing way. For that, our former VP deserves an A. As for the facts...that is still being determined, so I'm holding off...my GUESS is that in a decade we'll say "B". I understand that right now some of you are giving him failing grades...please stand by!

I found this yr. 2000 article from the Washington Post really interesting. Surprise, maybe -- they don't find him a geen-yus.

Gore's Grades Belie Image of Studiousness
His School Transcripts Are a Lot Like Bush's

By David Maraniss and Ellen Nakashima
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, March 19, 2000; Page A01


Link

Excerpt:

When John C. Davis, a retired teacher and assistant headmaster at St. Albans, was recently shown his illustrious former pupil's college board achievement test scores, he inspected them closely with a magnifier and shook his head, chuckling quietly at the science results.

"Four eighty-eight! Terrible" Davis declared upon inspecting the future vice president's 488 score (out of a possible 800) in physics.

"Hmmmm. Chemistry. Five-nineteen. He didn't do too well in chemistry."

As Davis moved down the page, his magnifier settled on Gore's more promising achievement scores in other scholastic realms.

"English. Seven oh-five. Right at the top!"

"U.S. History. Seven oh-one. Not so bad."
Member Since: Kolovoz 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
2 gazinta 4, 2 times
2 gazinta 6, 3 times
2 gazinta 8, 4 times

etc....
Member Since: Srpanj 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
So, I want to see JF reply to this post and tell us that this plot of tree-ring-derived temperatures and instrumentation is misleading. And that the temperatures going back 1000 years on this plot, from IPCC, is garbage, false, bunk, *pick the synonym of your choice*.

He did just say that tree-ring data is not useful for historical temperatures, just trends (I disagree with that last part, though.)

Thus plotting "temperatures" from tree rings together with actual, measured temperatures from surface stations, right or wrong, is misleading.



*atmoaggie slowly turning blue while holding his breath...probably should not be doing this*
Member Since: Kolovoz 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Tree ring data is useful in showing trends. It is not an accurate gauge of temperature. No one says it is.

That was exactly the problem. It showed no trend during, before, or after the MWP and LIA, which is absurd and not supported by any of the other proxies. So IPCC decided to based the entire first report and currently standing conclusions off of an ONLY-tree ring proxy study.

*All of the above is a lie because atmoaggie typed it*
Member Since: Kolovoz 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
I gotta 6th grade edumacation....

I no my gazintas...
Member Since: Srpanj 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
1800. hydrus
Quoting presslord:
I graduated (with honors)from the Henry W. Grady School of Journalism and Mass Communications at the University of Georgia...which, along with Northwestern and Columbia, is consistently considered the best in the world...and, I swear to God...not once...not ever...was the Vast Media Conspiracy ever mentioned...
Imressive, what year did you graduate H.W.G.?
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


Pajamas media is a right wing "news" source and not a scientific organization.

Tree rings are one of hundreds if not THOUSANDS of proxies used. Why do you keep using that - most of it was thrown out or statistically marginalized.

I didn't say anything about the source (irrelevant at this point), I have posted actual peer reviewed stuff that shows the tree ring data to erroneously show a stable historical temperature, and you believed it false simply because I posted.

Which raises one question...why are you talking to me at all if you throw out what I say because I said it? Makes any discussion with you pointless.

Sorry if this offends, but mama taught me to be honest, so I am doing so. Unfortunately, brutal honesty is what comes out in certain circumstances.
Member Since: Kolovoz 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
The rain can go away anytime now...

River flooding forecast to get into homes tonight, tomorrow, and beyond, in a number of places.


At 20 feet: SECONDARY ROADS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIVER WILL FLOOD. HOMES CLOSE TO THE RIVER AND PORTIONS OF THE HIDDEN SPRINGS RESORT PARK WILL BE FLOODED. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF PASTURE AND FARM LAND.


At 18 feet: RIVER GARDENS SUBDIVISION WILL BE MODERATELY FLOODED WITH SEVERAL STREETS IMPASSABLE AND A FEW HOMES FLOODED IN THE VICINITY OF GUM BAYOU. A FEW HOMES WILL ALSO BE THREATENED IN MAGNOLIA FOREST. SECONDARY ROADS TO THE RIVER AND THROUGHOUT HONEY ISLAND SWAMP WILL REMAIN INUNDATED.


At 18 feet: EVACUATION OF TRAILERS AT HIDDEN OAKS MUST BE COMPLETED. WATER COVERS THE ENTRANCE TO CAMP GROUNDS. SECONDARY ROADS AND UNIMPROVED ROADS NORTH OF ROBERT WILL FLOOD AS CHAPPEPEELA CREEK BACKS UP. LOW PLACES ON HIGHWAY 22 SOUTH OF ROBERT WILL BE UNDER WATER.

Sand bag locations for St. Tammany: http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2009/12/rains_cause_closures_in_folsom.html
WUmail me if you need some help with that, I would be glad to come sling 'em with ya.
Member Since: Kolovoz 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting gordydunnot:
I am just glad Jimmy Carter doesn't speak up about GW. Then I would be sure we would never be able to discuss weather on this blog. Interesting storm off Australia I hope your getting the rain you need down there with out to much damage Aussie. Lastly bring those 50's to S.Fl hurry up that will give New Orleans a break.


Laurence brings rain to Kimberley

The community of Kalumburu, in the far north of the Kimberley, is experiencing heavy rain as a result of Tropical Cyclone Laurence.

The category three system is moving in a south west direction towards the small community, and is recording wind gusts up to 185 kilometres an hour near the coast.

The owner of Kalumburu's general store, Graham Mills, says the gusty winds haven't reached the community, but residents are prepared.

"They're just staying indoors, they've all got their torches and batteries and stocked up on a few tinned foods things, a little bit of tobacco and a couple of decks of cards to entertain themselves," he said.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence is expected to briefly cross the West Australian Coast in the next few hours, as it passes over peninsulas on the Admiralty Gulf.

The Category 3 storm is expected to move fully onshore tomorrow afternoon, and will continue to bring heavy showers and destructive winds to remote northern communities over the next 24 hours.

Laurence is 120 kilometres west of Kalumburu, and is described by the Bureau of Meteorology as a small but intense system.

A yellow alert remains current for Kalumburu and the Mitchell Plateau.

A blue alert is in place for Kuri Bay and Cockatoo Island.

- ABC
Member Since: Rujan 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting hcubed:


I've found it better if you ignore any stories that have "Gore" and "Global Warming" in them.

BTW, exactly what science background does Gore have?

NONE
Member Since: Rujan 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
I am just glad Jimmy Carter doesn't speak up about GW. Then I would be sure we would never be able to discuss weather on this blog. Interesting storm off Australia I hope your getting the rain you need down there with out to much damage Aussie. Lastly bring those 50's to S.Fl hurry up that will give New Orleans a break.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1791. hcubed
Quoting Chicklit:
If I see Gore and Internet in same sentence, then I ignore the poster.
To me that is a sign of lack of imagination and mean-spiritedness, both qualities turn me off. Big time. Life is too precious to be p-eed off all of the time (sigh) and constantly trying to make the point that someone is stupid or wrong just because they don't agree with you.
Get over it. People are different.
And some are definitely better than others at following the middle ground and not offending other people. One of my New Year's Resolutions is not to be an ugly person this year, at all to anyone, no matter how deserving they are.


I've found it better if you ignore any stories that have "Gore" and "Global Warming" in them.

BTW, exactly what science background does Gore have?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How do you feel about "The Huffington Post'? JF?
Member Since: Srpanj 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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